Cowling also pointed to the growth of company databases (such as information from loyalty cards), which can provide factual information that would previously have been acquired by MR, and which will impact on the role of the MR firm. In addition, he predicted a rise in the importance of modelling, forecasting and insight – linked to the rise in trend data from tracking studies. Finally, he stated that data delivery and integration need rethinking in order to provide large volumes of data to clients in a meaningful way.

The vision of Peter Kellner, Chairman of online survey firm YouGov, involved the rise and rise of online research – mainly at the expense of telephone interviewing. Not only is online research cheaper and faster, he said, but it also allows for the use of visual stimuli and complex questions in a way that phone surveys cannot.

Kellner also believes that online research avoids the ‘interviewer effect’, and gave several examples of how online surveys have uncovered opinions more effectively than phone interviews. For example, when Arnold Schwarzenegger was running for governor, online surveys consistently and accurately predicted his success, while phone interviewing saw him lagging behind – a fact that Kellner puts down to respondents’ sheer embarrassment at admitting they wanted to vote for an ‘ex-movie star muscleman’.

When asked about under-representation of poor and older people in online samples, Kellner pointed out that there were defects in every sampling method used. ‘Who knows if the people you do reach are the same as those you don’t…. But we are all in some way in the business of modelling from the data you can get to the data you can’t.’ Except where it is important to reach all societal groups (as with government and social research), he feels ‘it’s not fatal if those groups are underrepresented’.

In terms of the future structure of the industry, Kellner predicts an increase in the number of very big companies at the same time as a rise in small, innovative companies, which can quickly spot trends and respond to changes. He sees the biggest pressure on the small to medium agencies - though he suggests there may be more of a role for medium-sized companies who act as ‘architects’ [advising on research] rather than ‘builders’ [actually carrying out the polling], as the builder function becomes polarised between the big agencies and the small specialists.

He also predicts – and hopes – that the research industry will become smarter, in terms of asking the right questions to help uncover motives as well as opinions.

Penny Hughes, President of the Advertising Association stated that one of the biggest future challenges for MR was to develop better audience measurement systems – something that is particularly important as the increased proliferation of media channels means audiences have become smaller and harder to measure.

Hughes was also passionate about the need for the MR industry to ‘enforce the professional standing of the business’. Too often, she believes, research findings are ignored or criticised because of who pays for them. Citing recent debates over direct to consumer advertising of drugs and the advertising of unhealthy foods to children, she stated that research by pressure groups and NGOs gets heard above research commissioned by business. She challenged the research industry to fight these assumptions, and to demonstrate studies’ rigour and lack of bias. Otherwise, she said, ‘NGOs are being given a free reign and an intellectually uncompetitive battleground on which to fight’.

Tim Bowles, Synovate’s CEO for Western Europe identified a tension between the focus on large-scale tracker surveys and what he termed ‘discovery research’ - which is often led by qualitative research and involves a strong consulting, advisory element.

He believes these two types of research, which make use of very different skills, will become more distinct in future. The challenge for a large organisation, he said, is how to find a home for the latter, and how to attract and retain staff with the necessary creative and client-responsive skills.

He went on to talk about consolidation of the big companies, which he says ‘will certainly continue – but will take a different shape’. He pointed to the ‘sleeping giants’ of Japan – large companies who have yet to expand outside that market, and to the growth of online specialists, who may be bought up, or may buy others.

Like Cowling, he focused on both the growth of Asia and the impact of technology. Not only is online data collection on the rise, he said, but other, currently under-exploited, technologies – such as RFID, GPS and interactive voice response - will impact on the future of MR. GPS technology, for example, can track consumers and contact them to ask questions while they’re in a particular shop – presenting ‘an opportunity for bringing MR closer to the point of decision-making’.

Responding to Peter Kellner’s predictions, he said: ‘I don’t think telephone research is dead by any means’. He believes that it is the use of panels - rather than just the Internet - that can solve the problem of declining response rates, and that panels of respondents who have agreed to be contacted by telephone can be just as effective as online panels.

Cris Tarrant, Chair/MD of Business Development Research Consultants (BDRC), took issue with some of Peter Kellner’s dire predictions for small to medium sized companies, and pointed out that the fastest growth rates in the industry are often seen by companies at the lower end of the scale.

He did concede, however, that being a generalist medium-sized company is to be ‘dead in the water’, and that smaller companies must have a speciality in order to succeed. On the whole, he believes smaller companies have more room to be creative, can offer more flexible working options, and can develop closer relationships with clients.

In terms of general industry trends, he predicted that, while technology will make things easier, it will also mean clients want everything produced more quickly. He also sees a tension between quantity and quality - with the danger that large volumes of online data samples will ‘swamp thought’. Ultimately, he stated, the Internet will be more important for delivery than collection of data.

Going out on a limb again, Tarrant predicted less of a role for outsourcing than other speakers, stating that ‘it will be a long time before the standard of offshore call centres is acceptable’ to respondents. He stated that the MR industry has to overcome its image problem by moving towards ‘a broader base of business intelligence’ that involves a knowledge of business and markets, and a greater use of secondary data. He predicted a two-tier industry in the future, where those who have - and apply - an appreciation of business will have a higher status.

Market research should see itself as the ‘champion of the consumer voice,’ he said. And - in an industry where consumer behaviour is diverging from the mean, and where companies are increasingly concerned with improving customer relationships – he believes there is more of a need for this than ever.

The BMRA is online at www.bmra.org.