Calgary Errors Prompt Canadian Polling Review

Canada's Marketing Research and Intelligence Association (MRIA) is to conduct an independent Inquiry into 'underperforming and conflicting' election polling during recent municipal elections in Calgary.

During the elections, MRIA says 'the wide discrepancies between various polling studies became part of the media story and acted as a distraction rather than an informative democratic tool'. The association says this failure 'has led many to question the value and robustness of polling methodology, and has shaken confidence in our industry'; and adds that such high profile failures 'can call into question the reliability of all survey research'.

The enquiry, comprised of academic experts in political science and polling standards, will study the information and data released by pollsters to support their results, and whether industry standards for public opinion research were met. Participants will be asked both to supply this data and to give their opinions as to the reasons behind the failures. Its three key aims are to establish: 1. the degree of inaccuracy, 2. the reasons for the inaccuracy, and 3. whether the polling results were adequately communicated to the general public.

CEO Dr. Kara Mitchelmore sums up: 'MRIA believes that what happened in Calgary needs to be better understood so that it can be prevented in the future. We call on the pollsters involved to submit their data and methods to an independent Inquiry that will be organized by MRIA. The Inquiry's findings will help ensure that polling research remains a vital and useful tool for democracy'.

Once it has completed its review, MRIA will publish the Inquiry's report in full. The association's Polling Standards, available in full at http://bit.ly/2xmof0R , include:

• Ethical rules that members must follow;
• Key information that must be made available to maintain transparency;
• Standards to ensure published survey results are presented in an unbiased way;
• Core methodological principles; and
• References to federal regulations, including the Canada Elections Act and CRTC.

MRIA, originally formed from the merger of three Canadian professional bodies, has in the last year re-absorbed a recent breakaway body called CAPOR, focused on public opinion and issue polling, after MRIA changed its Code of Conduct and updated polling guidelines to address CAPOR firms' concerns.

Web site: www.mria.ca .

All articles 2006-23 written and edited by Mel Crowther and/or Nick Thomas, 2024- by Nick Thomas, unless otherwise stated.

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